Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh, revealed a committee divided over whether rates need to rise or could eventually come down.

Inflation Pressures in Focus

Some officials pointed to inflation running hotter than expected, citing tariffs, the ongoing Middle East conflict, and AI-driven demand as contributing factors.

A Split Committee

The minutes noted that while some participants see room for the federal funds rate to stay within or slightly below its current range by year-end, others believe it should move higher given persistent price pressures.

Rates Held Steady for Now

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at the June meeting. Futures markets have been pricing in the possibility of a rate move as soon as September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Next Steps

Chair Warsh is set to deliver his first congressional testimony on monetary policy next week, an appearance markets will watch closely for clues on which side of the debate is gaining ground.